France has witnessed an unprecedented voter turnout in its snap parliamentary elections, the highest in decades. This election could potentially reshape the political landscape, threatening President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance and possibly forcing him into an uneasy alliance with the far-right. According to Ipsos polling estimates, voter turnout reached 65.5% on Sunday, marking the highest participation in a first-round parliamentary election since 1997. This turnout represents an 18-point increase compared to the 2022 elections.
Voting commenced at 8 a.m. local time, initiating the process of electing 577 members to the National Assembly through contests held across France and its overseas territories. The decision to hold the election three years ahead of schedule came after Macron’s Renaissance party suffered a significant defeat to the far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, in the European Parliament elections. In response to this defeat, Macron decided to call a snap election, the first of its kind since 1997, signaling a serious and consequential move for French politics.
Regardless of the election’s outcome, Macron has committed to serving out his term until 2027. The National Assembly, responsible for passing laws on domestic issues such as pensions, taxes, immigration, and education, contrasts with the president’s role in determining foreign, European, and defense policies. The results of this election could lead to a government of “cohabitation,” where the president and the majority in parliament are from different political parties, potentially leading to political gridlock. This scenario could complicate preparations for the upcoming summer Olympics in Paris.
Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader, cast her vote in Henin-Beaumont on Sunday, while Macron addressed the press following his decision to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. France last experienced cohabitation in the late 1990s when right-wing President Jacques Chirac had to appoint socialist Lionel Jospin as prime minister after calling snap polls.
In the first round, voters eliminate weaker candidates before the second round next Sunday. A candidate winning an absolute majority of votes on a 25% turnout secures the seat. However, typically, most deputies proceed to a second round. Only those winning over 12.5% of ballots cast by registered voters can stand in the second round, which often involves two, sometimes three or four, candidates. Some candidates may drop out to bolster their allies’ chances.
Voters mainly chose between three blocs: the RN-led far-right alliance, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), and Macron’s centrist Ensemble. The RN is led by Jordan Bardella, aiming to rebrand the historically controversial party. Until recently, a far-right government seemed unlikely, but Bardella might soon become France’s youngest prime minister in over two centuries.
On the left, the New Popular Front coalition, reminiscent of the 1936 Popular Front, includes both radical figures like Jean-Luc Melenchon and moderate leaders like Raphael Glucksmann. Macron’s centrist Ensemble, represented by outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, faces a challenging election.
Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, with results expected early Monday. Amidst concerns of potential unrest, shopfronts nationwide have been boarded up. Last year’s riots caused €800m in damages, reflecting France’s history of political turbulence. Macron has stated he will remain president regardless of the election results, emphasizing his commitment to his term until 2027.
Should Macron’s party lose, a period of cohabitation could follow, requiring the president to negotiate with other political factions to form a government and appoint a prime minister. This arrangement could result in a fragile government, possibly leading to further instability.
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