President Joe Biden’s efforts to facilitate a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas faced two significant setbacks recently. The fallout from an Israeli special forces rescue mission in Gaza and the resignation of centrist politician Benny Gantz from Israel’s war cabinet have further complicated the political and diplomatic landscape Biden has been navigating for months.
Rescue Mission’s Humanitarian Impact
The Israeli operation, which successfully retrieved four hostages, including Andrey Kozlov, from central Gaza on June 8, 2024, was a moment of relief and joy for their families and Israelis at large. This achievement was welcomed by the United States. However, the mission also resulted in the deaths of numerous Palestinian civilians, highlighting the severe humanitarian toll of the conflict. Hamas’s use of civilians as human shields exacerbates the carnage, which began with their assault on Israel on October 7.
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This operation’s bloodshed could deepen the rift between Biden and the progressive wing of his electoral coalition, many of whom are appalled by the administration’s support for Israel. This tension poses a risk to Biden’s support in key swing states, particularly Michigan, where a significant Arab American population resides. Vice President Kamala Harris encountered protests during a recent visit to the state, underscoring the issue’s sensitivity.
The disparity in the death toll between Palestinians and Israelis has also heightened international scrutiny and could strain US relations with its allies. Approximately 1,200 Israelis were killed in the initial Hamas attacks, while thousands of Palestinians have died in Gaza. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Qatar this week in continued efforts to pressure Hamas into a ceasefire agreement.
Israeli Political Turmoil
Benny Gantz’s resignation from Israel’s war cabinet signals serious internal discord. Gantz, a retired army general, criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for lacking a clear plan for Gaza’s future post-conflict. While Gantz’s party is not part of Netanyahu’s coalition, his departure might not immediately topple the government but could increase Netanyahu’s dependence on hard-right coalition members advocating for a more aggressive war strategy. This shift raises the risk of further escalation in the region, potentially complicating US efforts for peace.
Gantz’s exit also creates a significant obstacle to any potential peace agreement with Hamas. With his departure, the emergency government’s decision-making power now rests primarily with Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. The internal fracturing and Gantz’s call for elections have ignited protests across Israel, with citizens demanding the release of remaining hostages and an opportunity to vote.
Biden’s Complex Middle East Dynamics
Biden’s position is further strained by domestic political pressures and international diplomatic challenges. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan emphasized the US’s non-participation in the Israeli rescue mission and reiterated calls for a ceasefire. However, achieving a ceasefire remains challenging as both Hamas and Netanyahu have reasons to continue the conflict.
The president’s balancing act between progressive Democrats and Republicans, who have strong ties with Netanyahu, is delicate. The invitation for Netanyahu to address Congress in July, initiated by Republicans, highlights the ongoing political maneuvers in Washington.
Biden has faced persistent protests from pro-Palestinian activists at campaign events, and potential demonstrations at the Democratic National Convention in August could provide ammunition for Donald Trump’s law-and-order narrative. GOP figures like Sen. Tom Cotton have criticized the progressive stance on the conflict, further complicating Biden’s political landscape.
Future Prospects
The situation remains fluid and highly volatile. Netanyahu’s resilience and the political calendar suggest that Biden may have to deal with him throughout his reelection campaign. Biden’s recent peace plan, which calls for an immediate ceasefire, the release of hostages, and increased humanitarian aid, faces stiff resistance from Netanyahu, who insists on defeating Hamas.
Experts like Aaron David Miller and Richard Haass predict a protracted conflict in Gaza, with no quick resolution in sight. Biden’s challenge is to balance US support for Israel with the urgent need to mitigate humanitarian suffering and maintain international alliances, all while navigating a highly polarized domestic political environment.
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